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ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb
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"cell_type": "markdown", "cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},
"source": [ "source": [
"<div align=right><i>Peter Norvig<br>2 June 2019</i></div>\n", "<div align=\"right\"><i>Peter Norvig<br>2 June 2019</i></div>\n",
"\n", "\n",
"# Tracking Trump: Electoral Votes Edition\n", "# Tracking Trump: Electoral Votes Edition\n",
"\n", "\n",
"[RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html) and [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) shows presidential approval ratings (currently about 43% approval and 53% disapproval for a net -10%). Do approval ratings predict election results? There are three big caveats:\n", "Sites such as [RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html), [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/), and [Mourning Consult](https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/) track presidential approval ratings (currently about 43% approval and 53% disapproval for a net -10%). Do approval ratings predict election results? There are three big caveats:\n",
"\n", "\n",
"1. Approval polls are not votes. \n", "1. Today is not election day 2020. \n",
"\n", "\n",
"2. Today is not election day 2020. \n", "2. Approval polls are not votes. \n",
"\n", "\n",
"3. Popular votes do not correspond to electoral votes. \n", "3. Popular votes are not electoral votes. \n",
"\n", "\n",
"We can't be conclusive about the first two points, but this notebook can use state-by-state approval polls to \n", "We can't be conclusive about the first two points, but this notebook can use state-by-state approval polls to \n",
"compute expected electoral votes, under the assumption that Trump wins the electoral votes of states he has positive net approval (and for the purposes of computation we'll count half the electoral votes for states where approval exactly equals disapproval).\n", "compute expected electoral votes, under the assumption that Trump wins the electoral votes of states he has positive net approval (and for the purposes of computation we'll count half the electoral votes for states where approval exactly equals disapproval).\n",