From 673e86223e728881c0312412bac0504b1e92dfae Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Peter Norvig Date: Sun, 9 Jun 2019 18:31:10 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] Add files via upload --- ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb | 10 +++++----- 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb b/ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb index 7d3c8df..366a1fc 100644 --- a/ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb +++ b/ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb @@ -4,17 +4,17 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "
Peter Norvig
2 June 2019
\n", + "
Peter Norvig
2 June 2019
\n", "\n", "# Tracking Trump: Electoral Votes Edition\n", "\n", - "[RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html) and [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) shows presidential approval ratings (currently about 43% approval and 53% disapproval for a net -10%). Do approval ratings predict election results? There are three big caveats:\n", + "Sites such as [RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html), [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/), and [Mourning Consult](https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/) track presidential approval ratings (currently about 43% approval and 53% disapproval for a net -10%). Do approval ratings predict election results? There are three big caveats:\n", "\n", - "1. Approval polls are not votes. \n", + "1. Today is not election day 2020. \n", "\n", - "2. Today is not election day 2020. \n", + "2. Approval polls are not votes. \n", "\n", - "3. Popular votes do not correspond to electoral votes. \n", + "3. Popular votes are not electoral votes. \n", "\n", "We can't be conclusive about the first two points, but this notebook can use state-by-state approval polls to \n", "compute expected electoral votes, under the assumption that Trump wins the electoral votes of states he has positive net approval (and for the purposes of computation we'll count half the electoral votes for states where approval exactly equals disapproval).\n",