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This commit is contained in:
Peter Norvig
2019-12-16 11:00:58 -08:00
committed by GitHub
parent 03a0fd3abd
commit f2497075a3
2 changed files with 62 additions and 123 deletions
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125
ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb
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60
ipynb/ElectoralVotesCode.ipynb
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@@ -100,8 +100,8 @@
" 'August 2017': -19, 'August 2018': -12, 'August 2019': -10, \n", " 'August 2017': -19, 'August 2018': -12, 'August 2019': -10, \n",
" 'September 2017': -20, 'September 2018': -14, 'September 2019': -13, \n", " 'September 2017': -20, 'September 2018': -14, 'September 2019': -13, \n",
" 'October 2017': -17, 'October 2018': -11, 'October 2019': -13, \n", " 'October 2017': -17, 'October 2018': -11, 'October 2019': -13, \n",
" 'November 2017': -19, 'November 2018': -11, 'November 2019': -10,\n", " 'November 2017': -19, 'November 2018': -11, 'November 2019': -13,\n",
" 'December 2017': -18, 'December 2018': -10\n", " 'December 2017': -18, 'December 2018': -10, 'December 2019': -12,\n",
" }" " }"
] ]
}, },
@@ -151,64 +151,10 @@
"def net(state, date=now) -> int: return state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n", "def net(state, date=now) -> int: return state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n",
"def undecided(state, date=now) -> int: return 100 - state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n", "def undecided(state, date=now) -> int: return 100 - state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n",
"def movement(state, date=now) -> float: return undecided(state, date) / 5 + 2 * 𝝈(state)\n", "def movement(state, date=now) -> float: return undecided(state, date) / 5 + 2 * 𝝈(state)\n",
"def 𝝈(state, recent=dates[-18:]) -> float: return stdev(net(state, d) for d in recent)\n", "def 𝝈(state, recent=dates[-12:]) -> float: return stdev(net(state, d) for d in recent)\n",
"def is_swing(state) -> bool: return abs(net(state)) < movement(state)" "def is_swing(state) -> bool: return abs(net(state)) < movement(state)"
] ]
}, },
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"['January 2017',\n",
" 'February 2017',\n",
" 'March 2017',\n",
" 'April 2017',\n",
" 'May 2017',\n",
" 'June 2017',\n",
" 'July 2017',\n",
" 'August 2017',\n",
" 'September 2017',\n",
" 'October 2017',\n",
" 'November 2017',\n",
" 'December 2017',\n",
" 'January 2018',\n",
" 'February 2018',\n",
" 'March 2018',\n",
" 'April 2018',\n",
" 'May 2018',\n",
" 'June 2018',\n",
" 'July 2018',\n",
" 'August 2018',\n",
" 'September 2018',\n",
" 'October 2018',\n",
" 'November 2018',\n",
" 'December 2018',\n",
" 'January 2019',\n",
" 'February 2019',\n",
" 'March 2019',\n",
" 'April 2019',\n",
" 'May 2019',\n",
" 'June 2019',\n",
" 'July 2019',\n",
" 'August 2019',\n",
" 'September 2019',\n",
" 'October 2019',\n",
" 'November 2019']"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"dates"
]
},
{ {
"cell_type": "markdown", "cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},