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Peter Norvig authored and GitHub committed 2019-12-16 11:00:58 -08:00
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ipynb/Electoral Votes.ipynb
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@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@
"source": [ "source": [
"# Details for policy wonks\n", "# Details for policy wonks\n",
"\n", "\n",
"The following plot shows, for each month in office, the expected number of electoral votes, with error bars indicating a 3% approval swing in either direction (that is: the blue diamond is the total number of electoral votes for states where he has net positive approval; the top and bottom of the grey bars give the total if he were to gain or lose 3% in every state. Why 3%? That was the [average error](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) in national presidential polls in 2016: Clinton was predicted to win the popular vote by 6% but actually only won by 3%.) Trump hasn't been above 270 since 4 months into his term. He's been below 200 for 11 months in a row." "The following plot shows, for each month in office, the expected number of electoral votes, with error bars indicating a 3% approval swing in either direction (that is: the blue diamond is the total number of electoral votes for states where he has net positive approval; the top and bottom of the grey bars give the total if he were to gain or lose 3% in every state. Why 3%? That was the [average error](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/) in national presidential polls in 2016: Clinton was predicted to win the popular vote by 6% but actually only won by 3%.) Trump hasn't been above 270 since 4 months into his term. He's been below 200 for a year."
] ]
}, },
{ {
@@ -97,11 +97,11 @@
"\n", "\n",
"- **Undecided**: Undecided voters could make up their minds late in the election cycle. But there are few undecided voters: in most states, only 3% or 4%. \n", "- **Undecided**: Undecided voters could make up their minds late in the election cycle. But there are few undecided voters: in most states, only 3% or 4%. \n",
"\n", "\n",
"- **Variance**: How much are voters changing their minds from month to month in each state? I track the standard deviation, 𝝈, of the net approval for each state over the last 18 months.\n", "- **Variance**: How much are voters changing their minds from month to month in each state? I track the standard deviation, 𝝈, of the net approval for each state over the last 12 months (variance is the square of standard deviation).\n",
"\n", "\n",
"- **Movement**: I define the **maximum expected movement** of approval as 1/5 of the undecided voters (i.e., assume the undecided voters broke 60/40 one way or the other) plus 2 standard deviations in the net approval over the last year. \n", "- **Movement**: I define the **maximum expected movement** of approval as 1/5 of the undecided voters (i.e., assume the undecided voters broke 60/40 one way or the other) plus 2 standard deviations in the monthly net approval. \n",
"\n", "\n",
"- **Swing state**: I define a swing state as one whose maximum expected movement is greater than the absolute value of the net approval. There are 16 such states now, all with net approval between +7% and -5%, and with movement greater than 5%. The swing states are shown below in **BOLD CAPS**.\n", "- **Swing state**: I define a swing state as one whose maximum expected movement is greater than the absolute value of the net approval. There are **13** such states now, all with net approval between **+3% and -5%**. The swing states are shown below in **BOLD CAPS**.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"- **Margin**: If you list states in order of net approval, the key turning-point state is Pennsylvania; Trump would need to win that and every state in which he is more popular to reach 270. He currently is **7% behind in Pennsylvania**, so we say that his **margin is 7%**.\n", "- **Margin**: If you list states in order of net approval, the key turning-point state is Pennsylvania; Trump would need to win that and every state in which he is more popular to reach 270. He currently is **7% behind in Pennsylvania**, so we say that his **margin is 7%**.\n",
"\n", "\n",
@@ -117,13 +117,13 @@
"- **+**: President's current approval in state.\n", "- **+**: President's current approval in state.\n",
"- **-**: President's current disapproval in state.\n", "- **-**: President's current disapproval in state.\n",
"- **?**: Undecideds in state.\n", "- **?**: Undecideds in state.\n",
"- **𝝈**: Standard deviation in net approval over the past 18 months in state.\n", "- **𝝈**: Standard deviation in net approval over the past 12 months in state.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"The table shows that:\n", "The table shows that:\n",
"- If Trump wins the states he is leading in, he gets **185** electoral votes (the **ΣEV** in the Florida row).\n", "- If Trump wins the states he is leading in, he gets **185** electoral votes (the **ΣEV** in the Florida row).\n",
"- If he also wins all the swing states, he gets **253** electoral votes (**ΣEV** in the Ohio row). \n", "- If he also wins all the swing states, he gets **253** electoral votes (**ΣEV** in the Ohio row). \n",
"- To get to **270**, he would also need to win Pennsylvania, or Nevada plus Virginia; he is currently at -7% net approval in all three of these satates, so I say he has a **7% margin**.\n", "- To get to **270**, going in order of states with least bad net approval, he would also need to win Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Or substitute Virginia for one of these; but he would need to win at least one state where he is currently down by **7%**, so that's the margin.\n",
"- Some traditional swing states currently seem out of reach for Trump: he's at -14% in Michigan and Wisconsin.\n" "- Some traditional swing states currently seem out of reach for Trump: he's at **-14%** in Michigan and Wisconsin.\n"
] ]
}, },
{ {
@@ -136,57 +136,57 @@
"text/markdown": [ "text/markdown": [
"|State|Net|Move|EV|ΣEV|+|−|?|𝝈|\n", "|State|Net|Move|EV|ΣEV|+|−|?|𝝈|\n",
"|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|\n", "|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|\n",
"|Wyoming|+35%|±12%|3|3|66%|31%|3%|±5.5%\n", "|Wyoming|+35%|±11%|3|3|66%|31%|3%|±5.3%\n",
"|Alabama|+22%|±7%|9|12|59%|37%|4%|±3.3%\n", "|Alabama|+22%|±6%|9|12|59%|37%|4%|±2.5%\n",
"|Mississippi|+19%|±8%|6|18|57%|38%|5%|±3.4%\n", "|Mississippi|+19%|±6%|6|18|57%|38%|5%|±2.7%\n",
"|West Virginia|+19%|±10%|5|23|58%|39%|3%|±4.6%\n", "|West Virginia|+19%|±6%|5|23|58%|39%|3%|±2.7%\n",
"|Idaho|+18%|±6%|4|27|57%|39%|4%|±2.4%\n", "|Idaho|+18%|±6%|4|27|57%|39%|4%|±2.8%\n",
"|Tennessee|+16%|±6%|11|38|56%|40%|4%|±2.8%\n", "|Tennessee|+16%|±5%|11|38|56%|40%|4%|±2.1%\n",
"|Kentucky|+14%|±4%|8|46|55%|41%|4%|±1.4%\n", "|Kentucky|+14%|±4%|8|46|55%|41%|4%|±1.5%\n",
"|**ALASKA**|**+10%**|**±11%**|3|49|53%|43%|4%|±5.3%\n", "|Alaska|+10%|±7%|3|49|53%|43%|4%|±3.1%\n",
"|Louisiana|+10%|±9%|8|57|53%|43%|4%|±4.2%\n", "|Louisiana|+10%|±7%|8|57|53%|43%|4%|±2.9%\n",
"|Oklahoma|+9%|±7%|7|64|53%|44%|3%|±3.3%\n", "|Oklahoma|+9%|±6%|7|64|53%|44%|3%|±2.5%\n",
"|Arkansas|+8%|±8%|6|70|52%|44%|4%|±3.5%\n", "|Arkansas|+8%|±5%|6|70|52%|44%|4%|±2.0%\n",
"|South Carolina|+8%|±6%|9|79|52%|44%|4%|±2.4%\n", "|South Carolina|+8%|±4%|9|79|52%|44%|4%|±1.7%\n",
"|**KANSAS**|**+3%**|**±6%**|6|85|50%|47%|3%|±2.6%\n", "|**KANSAS**|**+3%**|**±5%**|6|85|50%|47%|3%|±2.2%\n",
"|**MISSOURI**|**+3%**|**±6%**|10|95|50%|47%|3%|±2.8%\n", "|**MISSOURI**|**+3%**|**±6%**|10|95|50%|47%|3%|±2.7%\n",
"|**SOUTH DAKOTA**|**+3%**|**±11%**|3|98|50%|47%|3%|±5.0%\n", "|**SOUTH DAKOTA**|**+3%**|**±9%**|3|98|50%|47%|3%|±4.1%\n",
"|**TEXAS**|**+3%**|**±6%**|38|136|49%|46%|5%|±2.4%\n", "|**TEXAS**|**+3%**|**±4%**|38|136|49%|46%|5%|±1.5%\n",
"|**INDIANA**|**+2%**|**±5%**|11|147|49%|47%|4%|±2.2%\n", "|**INDIANA**|**+2%**|**±4%**|11|147|49%|47%|4%|±1.8%\n",
"|**NORTH DAKOTA**|**+2%**|**±7%**|3|150|49%|47%|4%|±3.1%\n", "|**NORTH DAKOTA**|**+2%**|**±6%**|3|150|49%|47%|4%|±2.7%\n",
"|**UTAH**|**+2%**|**±7%**|6|156|49%|47%|4%|±3.2%\n", "|**UTAH**|**+2%**|**±7%**|6|156|49%|47%|4%|±3.1%\n",
"|**FLORIDA**|**+1%**|**±6%**|29|185|49%|48%|3%|±2.7%\n", "|**FLORIDA**|**+1%**|**±3%**|29|185|49%|48%|3%|±1.4%\n",
"|**MONTANA**|**-1%**|**±8%**|3|188|48%|49%|3%|±3.9%\n", "|**MONTANA**|**-1%**|**±7%**|3|188|48%|49%|3%|±3.1%\n",
"|**NORTH CAROLINA**|**-2%**|**±5%**|15|203|47%|49%|4%|±2.2%\n", "|**NORTH CAROLINA**|**-2%**|**±4%**|15|203|47%|49%|4%|±1.5%\n",
"|**GEORGIA**|**-3%**|**±7%**|16|219|46%|49%|5%|±2.9%\n", "|**GEORGIA**|**-3%**|**±6%**|16|219|46%|49%|5%|±2.6%\n",
"|**ARIZONA**|**-4%**|**±7%**|11|230|46%|50%|4%|±3.0%\n", "|**ARIZONA**|**-4%**|**±4%**|11|230|46%|50%|4%|±1.7%\n",
"|**NEBRASKA**|**-5%**|**±9%**|5|235|46%|51%|3%|±4.1%\n", "|**NEBRASKA**|**-5%**|**±9%**|5|235|46%|51%|3%|±4.1%\n",
"|**OHIO**|**-5%**|**±5%**|18|253|46%|51%|3%|±2.2%\n", "|Ohio|-5%|±3%|18|253|46%|51%|3%|±1.0%\n",
"|Nevada|-7%|±6%|6|259|45%|52%|3%|±2.9%\n", "|Nevada|-7%|±5%|6|259|45%|52%|3%|±2.3%\n",
"|Pennsylvania|-7%|±3%|20|279|45%|52%|3%|±1.4%\n", "|Pennsylvania|-7%|±3%|20|279|45%|52%|3%|±1.2%\n",
"|Virginia|-7%|±4%|13|292|45%|52%|3%|±1.7%\n", "|Virginia|-7%|±4%|13|292|45%|52%|3%|±1.9%\n",
"|New Mexico|-9%|±6%|5|297|44%|53%|3%|±2.9%\n", "|New Mexico|-9%|±7%|5|297|44%|53%|3%|±3.4%\n",
"|Iowa|-13%|±6%|6|303|42%|55%|3%|±2.7%\n", "|Iowa|-13%|±4%|6|303|42%|55%|3%|±1.8%\n",
"|Maine|-13%|±8%|4|307|42%|55%|3%|±3.6%\n", "|Maine|-13%|±5%|4|307|42%|55%|3%|±2.4%\n",
"|Minnesota|-13%|±5%|10|317|42%|55%|3%|±2.1%\n", "|Minnesota|-13%|±5%|10|317|42%|55%|3%|±2.1%\n",
"|Michigan|-14%|±5%|16|333|41%|55%|4%|±2.0%\n", "|Michigan|-14%|±4%|16|333|41%|55%|4%|±1.8%\n",
"|Wisconsin|-14%|±5%|10|343|41%|55%|4%|±2.2%\n", "|Wisconsin|-14%|±4%|10|343|41%|55%|4%|±1.7%\n",
"|Colorado|-15%|±6%|9|352|41%|56%|3%|±2.5%\n", "|Colorado|-15%|±5%|9|352|41%|56%|3%|±2.3%\n",
"|New Hampshire|-15%|±9%|4|356|41%|56%|3%|±4.3%\n", "|New Hampshire|-15%|±9%|4|356|41%|56%|3%|±4.1%\n",
"|New Jersey|-15%|±5%|14|370|41%|56%|3%|±2.2%\n", "|New Jersey|-15%|±4%|14|370|41%|56%|3%|±1.5%\n",
"|Delaware|-18%|±7%|3|373|39%|57%|4%|±3.2%\n", "|Delaware|-18%|±8%|3|373|39%|57%|4%|±3.5%\n",
"|Illinois|-20%|±4%|20|393|38%|58%|4%|±1.4%\n", "|Illinois|-20%|±4%|20|393|38%|58%|4%|±1.6%\n",
"|Connecticut|-22%|±8%|7|400|37%|59%|4%|±3.7%\n", "|Connecticut|-22%|±3%|7|400|37%|59%|4%|±1.3%\n",
"|Rhode Island|-22%|±6%|4|404|37%|59%|4%|±2.4%\n", "|Rhode Island|-22%|±4%|4|404|37%|59%|4%|±1.8%\n",
"|Oregon|-24%|±5%|7|411|36%|60%|4%|±2.2%\n", "|Oregon|-24%|±5%|7|411|36%|60%|4%|±2.1%\n",
"|New York|-25%|±5%|29|440|36%|61%|3%|±2.1%\n", "|New York|-25%|±3%|29|440|36%|61%|3%|±1.2%\n",
"|Maryland|-27%|±7%|10|450|35%|62%|3%|±3.0%\n", "|Maryland|-27%|±4%|10|450|35%|62%|3%|±1.8%\n",
"|California|-28%|±6%|55|505|34%|62%|4%|±2.7%\n", "|California|-28%|±3%|55|505|34%|62%|4%|±1.2%\n",
"|Massachusetts|-29%|±6%|11|516|34%|63%|3%|±2.5%\n", "|Massachusetts|-29%|±4%|11|516|34%|63%|3%|±1.8%\n",
"|Washington|-29%|±6%|12|528|34%|63%|3%|±2.7%\n", "|Washington|-29%|±5%|12|528|34%|63%|3%|±2.0%\n",
"|Hawaii|-35%|±10%|4|532|31%|66%|3%|±4.6%\n", "|Hawaii|-35%|±9%|4|532|31%|66%|3%|±4.2%\n",
"|Vermont|-42%|±10%|3|535|28%|70%|2%|±5.0%\n", "|Vermont|-42%|±8%|3|535|28%|70%|2%|±3.6%\n",
"|District of Columbia|-62%|±7%|3|538|17%|79%|4%|±3.0%" "|District of Columbia|-62%|±6%|3|538|17%|79%|4%|±2.5%"
], ],
"text/plain": [ "text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.Markdown object>" "<IPython.core.display.Markdown object>"
@@ -216,7 +216,7 @@
"outputs": [ "outputs": [
{ {
"data": { "data": {
"image/png": 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truncated
"text/plain": [ "text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x504 with 1 Axes>" "<Figure size 720x504 with 1 Axes>"
] ]
@@ -264,7 +264,7 @@
"|**FLORIDA**|+5|29|-4|(+1)|-9|(-4)|+0|(+5)|+17|(+22)|\n", "|**FLORIDA**|+5|29|-4|(+1)|-9|(-4)|+0|(+5)|+17|(+22)|\n",
"|Maryland|-23|10|-4|(-27)|-7|(-30)|+0|(-23)|+10|(-13)|\n", "|Maryland|-23|10|-4|(-27)|-7|(-30)|+0|(-23)|+10|(-13)|\n",
"|Alabama|+27|9|-5|(+22)|-7|(+20)|+3|(+30)|+9|(+36)|\n", "|Alabama|+27|9|-5|(+22)|-7|(+20)|+3|(+30)|+9|(+36)|\n",
"|**ALASKA**|+15|3|-5|(+10)|-14|(+1)|-14|(+1)|+9|(+24)|\n", "|Alaska|+15|3|-5|(+10)|-14|(+1)|-14|(+1)|+9|(+24)|\n",
"|Illinois|-13|20|-7|(-20)|-10|(-23)|-8|(-21)|+22|(+9)|\n", "|Illinois|-13|20|-7|(-20)|-10|(-23)|-8|(-21)|+22|(+9)|\n",
"|Louisiana|+17|8|-7|(+10)|-2|(+15)|+2|(+19)|+14|(+31)|\n", "|Louisiana|+17|8|-7|(+10)|-2|(+15)|+2|(+19)|+14|(+31)|\n",
"|**NORTH CAROLINA**|+5|15|-7|(-2)|-9|(-4)|-6|(-1)|+13|(+18)|\n", "|**NORTH CAROLINA**|+5|15|-7|(-2)|-9|(-4)|-6|(-1)|+13|(+18)|\n",
@@ -277,7 +277,7 @@
"|Connecticut|-11|7|-11|(-22)|-13|(-24)|-8|(-19)|+16|(+5)|\n", "|Connecticut|-11|7|-11|(-22)|-13|(-24)|-8|(-19)|+16|(+5)|\n",
"|Minnesota|-2|10|-11|(-13)|-16|(-18)|-12|(-14)|+5|(+3)|\n", "|Minnesota|-2|10|-11|(-13)|-16|(-18)|-12|(-14)|+5|(+3)|\n",
"|West Virginia|+30|5|-11|(+19)|-6|(+24)|-8|(+22)|+7|(+37)|\n", "|West Virginia|+30|5|-11|(+19)|-6|(+24)|-8|(+22)|+7|(+37)|\n",
"|**OHIO**|+7|18|-12|(-5)|-13|(-6)|-11|(-4)|+7|(+14)|\n", "|Ohio|+7|18|-12|(-5)|-13|(-6)|-11|(-4)|+7|(+14)|\n",
"|Tennessee|+28|11|-12|(+16)|-16|(+12)|-11|(+17)|+5|(+33)|\n", "|Tennessee|+28|11|-12|(+16)|-16|(+12)|-11|(+17)|+5|(+33)|\n",
"|Wyoming|+47|3|-12|(+35)|-17|(+30)|-22|(+25)|-7|(+40)|\n", "|Wyoming|+47|3|-12|(+35)|-17|(+30)|-22|(+25)|-7|(+40)|\n",
"|**ARIZONA**|+9|11|-13|(-4)|-17|(-8)|-12|(-3)|+11|(+20)|\n", "|**ARIZONA**|+9|11|-13|(-4)|-17|(-8)|-12|(-3)|+11|(+20)|\n",
@@ -315,13 +315,6 @@
"source": [ "source": [
"show_parp()" "show_parp()"
] ]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
} }
], ],
"metadata": { "metadata": {
ipynb/ElectoralVotesCode.ipynb
+3 -57
View File
@@ -100,8 +100,8 @@
" 'August 2017': -19, 'August 2018': -12, 'August 2019': -10, \n", " 'August 2017': -19, 'August 2018': -12, 'August 2019': -10, \n",
" 'September 2017': -20, 'September 2018': -14, 'September 2019': -13, \n", " 'September 2017': -20, 'September 2018': -14, 'September 2019': -13, \n",
" 'October 2017': -17, 'October 2018': -11, 'October 2019': -13, \n", " 'October 2017': -17, 'October 2018': -11, 'October 2019': -13, \n",
" 'November 2017': -19, 'November 2018': -11, 'November 2019': -10,\n", " 'November 2017': -19, 'November 2018': -11, 'November 2019': -13,\n",
" 'December 2017': -18, 'December 2018': -10\n", " 'December 2017': -18, 'December 2018': -10, 'December 2019': -12,\n",
" }" " }"
] ]
}, },
@@ -151,64 +151,10 @@
"def net(state, date=now) -> int: return state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n", "def net(state, date=now) -> int: return state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n",
"def undecided(state, date=now) -> int: return 100 - state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n", "def undecided(state, date=now) -> int: return 100 - state.approvals[date] - state.disapprovals[date]\n",
"def movement(state, date=now) -> float: return undecided(state, date) / 5 + 2 * 𝝈(state)\n", "def movement(state, date=now) -> float: return undecided(state, date) / 5 + 2 * 𝝈(state)\n",
"def 𝝈(state, recent=dates[-18:]) -> float: return stdev(net(state, d) for d in recent)\n", "def 𝝈(state, recent=dates[-12:]) -> float: return stdev(net(state, d) for d in recent)\n",
"def is_swing(state) -> bool: return abs(net(state)) < movement(state)" "def is_swing(state) -> bool: return abs(net(state)) < movement(state)"
] ]
}, },
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"['January 2017',\n",
" 'February 2017',\n",
" 'March 2017',\n",
" 'April 2017',\n",
" 'May 2017',\n",
" 'June 2017',\n",
" 'July 2017',\n",
" 'August 2017',\n",
" 'September 2017',\n",
" 'October 2017',\n",
" 'November 2017',\n",
" 'December 2017',\n",
" 'January 2018',\n",
" 'February 2018',\n",
" 'March 2018',\n",
" 'April 2018',\n",
" 'May 2018',\n",
" 'June 2018',\n",
" 'July 2018',\n",
" 'August 2018',\n",
" 'September 2018',\n",
" 'October 2018',\n",
" 'November 2018',\n",
" 'December 2018',\n",
" 'January 2019',\n",
" 'February 2019',\n",
" 'March 2019',\n",
" 'April 2019',\n",
" 'May 2019',\n",
" 'June 2019',\n",
" 'July 2019',\n",
" 'August 2019',\n",
" 'September 2019',\n",
" 'October 2019',\n",
" 'November 2019']"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"dates"
]
},
{ {
"cell_type": "markdown", "cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {}, "metadata": {},