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Peter Norvig 2018-04-15 15:35:09 -07:00 committed by GitHub
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@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
"1. **Holistic**: I just feel that the Warriors have about a 1/3 chance of winning it all.\n", "1. **Holistic**: I just feel that the Warriors have about a 1/3 chance of winning it all.\n",
"2. **Game by Game**: I think the Warriors have an 75% chance of winning each game in the first round, then 65% for each game in the second round, but only 45% against the Rockets, then 55% if they make it to the finals. From that I'll calculate their overall chance.\n", "2. **Game by Game**: I think the Warriors have an 75% chance of winning each game in the first round, then 65% for each game in the second round, but only 45% against the Rockets, then 55% if they make it to the finals. From that I'll calculate their overall chance.\n",
"3. **Point by Point**: The Warriors have a per-game average point differential of +5.8; I'll compare that to the other teams and caclulate their overall chance.\n", "3. **Point by Point**: The Warriors have a per-game average point differential of +5.8; I'll compare that to the other teams and caclulate their overall chance.\n",
"4. **Play by Play**: Use [detailed statistics](https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shot_finder.cgi) to model the game shot-by-shot, or even pass-by-pass.\n", "4. **Play by Play**: Use [detailed statistics](https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shot_finder.cgi) to [model](https://danvatterott.com/blog/2016/06/16/creating-videos-of-nba-action-with-sportsvu-data/) the game shot-by-shot, or even pass-by-pass. That's too complex for me.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"# Point by Point Model\n", "# Point by Point Model\n",
"\n", "\n",
@ -54,7 +54,7 @@
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@ -90,7 +90,7 @@
"5 point differential = 68% win game\n", "5 point differential = 68% win game\n",
"6 point differential = 72% win game\n", "6 point differential = 72% win game\n",
"7 point differential = 75% win game\n", "7 point differential = 75% win game\n",
"8 point differential = 77% win game\n", "8 point differential = 78% win game\n",
"9 point differential = 80% win game\n" "9 point differential = 80% win game\n"
] ]
} }
@ -146,13 +146,13 @@
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"text": [ "text": [
"0 point differential = 50% win game = 50% win series\n", "0 point differential = 50% win game = 49% win series\n",
"1 point differential = 54% win game = 58% win series\n", "1 point differential = 54% win game = 58% win series\n",
"2 point differential = 58% win game = 66% win series\n", "2 point differential = 57% win game = 66% win series\n",
"3 point differential = 61% win game = 74% win series\n", "3 point differential = 61% win game = 73% win series\n",
"4 point differential = 65% win game = 80% win series\n", "4 point differential = 65% win game = 80% win series\n",
"5 point differential = 68% win game = 85% win series\n", "5 point differential = 68% win game = 85% win series\n",
"6 point differential = 72% win game = 89% win series\n", "6 point differential = 71% win game = 89% win series\n",
"7 point differential = 75% win game = 93% win series\n", "7 point differential = 75% win game = 93% win series\n",
"8 point differential = 78% win game = 95% win series\n", "8 point differential = 78% win game = 95% win series\n",
"9 point differential = 80% win game = 97% win series\n" "9 point differential = 80% win game = 97% win series\n"
@ -328,9 +328,9 @@
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"Rockets vs Wolves 89%; through here: 89%\n", "Rockets vs Wolves 89%; through here: 89%\n",
"Rockets vs Jazz 78%; through here: 70%\n", "Rockets vs Jazz 78%; through here: 69%\n",
"Rockets vs Warriors 69%; through here: 48%\n", "Rockets vs Warriors 69%; through here: 48%\n",
"Rockets vs Raptors 58%; through here: 28%\n" "Rockets vs Raptors 57%; through here: 27%\n"
] ]
} }
], ],
@ -352,7 +352,7 @@
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"text": [ "text": [
"Warriors vs Spurs 73%; through here: 73%\n", "Warriors vs Spurs 73%; through here: 73%\n",
"Warriors vs Blazers 76%; through here: 55%\n", "Warriors vs Blazers 74%; through here: 54%\n",
"Warriors vs Rockets 31%; through here: 17%\n", "Warriors vs Rockets 31%; through here: 17%\n",
"Warriors vs Raptors 38%; through here: 6%\n" "Warriors vs Raptors 38%; through here: 6%\n"
] ]
@ -405,7 +405,7 @@
"\n", "\n",
"def series_results(p, W=0, L=0):\n", "def series_results(p, W=0, L=0):\n",
" \"\"\"Return {(win, loss): probability} for all possible outcomes of the series.\"\"\"\n", " \"\"\"Return {(win, loss): probability} for all possible outcomes of the series.\"\"\"\n",
" return MCounter({(W, L): 1} if W == 4 or L == 4 else\n", " return MCounter([(W, L)] if W == 4 or L == 4 else\n",
" (p * series_results(p, W + 1, L) + \n", " (p * series_results(p, W + 1, L) + \n",
" (1 - p) * series_results(p, W, L + 1)))\n", " (1 - p) * series_results(p, W, L + 1)))\n",
" \n", " \n",
@ -432,7 +432,7 @@
"source": [ "source": [
"So we see that our 60% team has a 13% chance of sweeping, and 13+21+21 = 55% chance of winning in 6 games or less.\n", "So we see that our 60% team has a 13% chance of sweeping, and 13+21+21 = 55% chance of winning in 6 games or less.\n",
"\n", "\n",
"**Note:** I think `collections.Counter` should support multiplication. If `C` is a `Counter`, then shouldn't `C + C` be the same as `2 * C`?" "**Note:** I think `Counter` should support multiplication. If `C` is a `Counter`, then shouldn't `C + C` be the same as `2 * C`?"
] ]
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@ -936,16 +936,16 @@
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