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Update WWW.ipynb

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Peter Norvig
2018-10-06 15:39:18 -07:00
committed by GitHub
parent 3046397f4e
commit 31c1afce01
1 changed files with 2 additions and 2 deletions
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@@ -405,7 +405,7 @@
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"This model gives cuts the Rockets' chances a bit (mainly because the Raptors have a strong 7.3 score), and cuts the Warriors' chances a lot, bringing them more in line with the 538 prediction. How do I reconcile the discrepancy between my subjective probabilities and these numbers? I guess I would say that I have less faith in the point differential model, for several reasons: it counts games from the distant past, when some teams had very different lineups than they have now (due to injuries and trades); different teams have different approaches to how they handle games whose outcome is already decided; the metric puts too much emphasis on blowouts, for example, in the Warriors' final game, it was to their strategic advantage to lose, and they did it very convincingly—by 40 points, which dropped their average point differential for the entire year by 0.5 points.\n",
"This model cuts the Rockets' chances a bit (mainly because the Raptors have a strong 7.3 score), and cuts the Warriors' chances a lot, bringing them more in line with the 538 prediction. How do I reconcile the discrepancy between my subjective probabilities and these numbers? I guess I would say that I have less faith in the point differential model, for several reasons: it counts games from the distant past, when some teams had very different lineups than they have now (due to injuries and trades); different teams have different approaches to how they handle games whose outcome is already decided; the metric puts too much emphasis on blowouts, for example, in the Warriors' final game, it was to their strategic advantage to lose, and they did it very convincingly—by 40 points, which dropped their average point differential for the entire year by 0.5 points.\n",
"\n",
"# Series Length\n",
"\n",
@@ -474,7 +474,7 @@
"source": [
"So we see that our 60% team has a 13% chance of sweeping (4-0), and 13+21+21 = 55% chance of winning in 6 games or less.\n",
"\n",
"**Note:** I had to define `MCounter` because `collectionsCounter` does not support multiplication. I think it should: if `C` is a `Counter`, then shouldn't `C + C` be the same as `2 * C`?"
"**Note:** I had to define `MCounter` because `collections.Counter` does not support multiplication. I think it should: if `C` is a `Counter`, then shouldn't `C + C` be the same as `2 * C`?"
]
},
{