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< input name = 'input_3' id = 'input_99_3' type = 'email' value = '' class = 'medium' tabindex = '3' placeholder = 'Email' aria-required = "true" aria-invalid = "false" / >
< / div > < / li > < li id = 'field_99_5' class = 'gfield gfield_contains_required field_sublabel_below field_description_below gfield_visibility_visible' > < label class = 'gfield_label' for = 'input_99_5' > Job Title< span class = 'gfield_required' > *< / span > < / label > < div class = 'ginput_container ginput_container_text' > < input name = 'input_5' id = 'input_99_5' type = 'text' value = '' class = 'medium' tabindex = '4' placeholder = 'Job Title' aria-required = "true" aria-invalid = "false" / > < / div > < / li > < li id = 'field_99_6' class = 'gfield gfield_contains_required field_sublabel_below field_description_below gfield_visibility_visible' > < label class = 'gfield_label' for = 'input_99_6' > Company< span class = 'gfield_required' > *< / span > < / label > < div class = 'ginput_container ginput_container_text' > < input name = 'input_6' id = 'input_99_6' type = 'text' value = '' class = 'medium' tabindex = '5' placeholder = 'Company/Organization' aria-required = "true" aria-invalid = "false" / > < / div > < / li >
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< div class = 'gform_footer top_label' > < button type = "submit" id = "gform_submit_button_99" class = "gform_button button" tabindex = "6" onclick = 'if(window["gf_submitting_99"]){return false;} if( !jQuery("#gform_99")[0].checkValidity || jQuery("#gform_99")[0].checkValidity()){window["gf_submitting_99"]=true;} ' onkeypress = 'if( event.keyCode == 13 ){ if(window["gf_submitting_99"]){return false;} if( !jQuery("#gform_99")[0].checkValidity || jQuery("#gform_99")[0].checkValidity()){window["gf_submitting_99"]=true;} jQuery("#gform_99").trigger("submit",[true]); }' > Submit< span > < / span > < / button > < input type = 'hidden' name = 'gform_ajax' value = 'form_id=99&title=&description=&tabindex=1' / >
< input type = 'hidden' class = 'gform_hidden' name = 'is_submit_99' value = '1' / >
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< input type = 'hidden' class = 'gform_hidden' name = 'gform_unique_id' value = '' / >
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< input type = 'hidden' name = 'gform_field_values' value = '' / >
< / div >
< / form >
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< iframe style = 'display:none;width:0px;height:0px;' src = 'about:blank' name = 'gform_ajax_frame_99' id = 'gform_ajax_frame_99' title = 'Ajax Frame' > This iframe contains the logic required to handle Ajax powered Gravity Forms.< / iframe >
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< / div >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div >
< div class = "column primaries-container" >
< section class = "section section__headline" >
< div class = "headline" >
< img class = "headline__image" src = "https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/themes/morning-consult/img/misc/trump.png" >
< div class = "headline__content" >
< div class = "headline__subtitle weight__bold" >
Political Intelligence < / div >
< div class = "headline__title h2-condensed weight__bold" >
Tracking Trump: The President’ s Standing Across America < / div >
< div class = "headline__copy body-copy__4" >
< p > On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on President Trump. Each month, we’ ll update this page with the latest survey data, providing a clear picture of Trump’ s approval and re-election prospects.< / p >
< p > < / p >
< p > To receive more data on Trump and 2020, < a href = "https://morningconsult.com/form/political-intel-briefing/" > sign up here< / a > .< / p >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div >
< / section >
< section class = "section section__map story" >
< a name = "section-0" > < / a >
< div class = "headline-title" >
Approval by State < / div >
< div class = "headline-copy body-copy__4" >
< p > Use the slider to track how Trump’ s net approval has shifted over time.< / p >
< / div >
< div class = "map" >
< div id = "mc-highcharts-map-wrapper" class = "mc-highcharts-map" >
< div id = "mc-highcharts-map-container" > < / div >
< div class = "mc-highcharts-map__slider" >
< span class = "mc-highcharts-map__slider__value" > < / span >
< input type = "range" class = "mc-highcharts-map__slider__input" >
< div class = "mc-highcharts-map__slider__desc" > Slide left and right to change months< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking__expand-container" >
< div class = "ranking__social" >
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< a href = "https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&summary=Explore+this+interactive+report+tracking+Trump%27s+standing+across+America%2C+via+Morning+Consult%3A&url=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1&title=Tracking+Trump%3A+The+President%E2%80%99s+Standing+Across+America" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__linkedin mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
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< a href = "https://www.facebook.com/dialog/share?app_id=135331423885334&display=popup&href=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__facebook mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
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< a href = "https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Explore+this+interactive+report+tracking+Trump%27s+standing+across+America%2C+via+%40MorningConsult%3A&url=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__twitter mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
< / div > < / div >
< / div >
< / section >
< section class = "section section__trend story" >
< a name = "section-1" > < / a >
< div class = "headline-title" >
State Trends < / div >
< div class = "headline-copy body-copy__4" >
< p > Select a state to view the trend data.< / p >
< / div >
< div class = "trendline" >
< div class = "trendline__select select2-event" >
< select name = "trendline" >
< option value = "1" > Alabama< / option >
< option value = "2" > Alaska< / option >
< option value = "3" > Arizona< / option >
< option value = "4" > Arkansas< / option >
< option value = "5" > California< / option >
< option value = "6" > Colorado< / option >
< option value = "7" > Connecticut< / option >
< option value = "8" > Delaware< / option >
< option value = "9" > District of Columbia< / option >
< option value = "10" > Florida< / option >
< option value = "11" > Georgia< / option >
< option value = "12" > Hawaii< / option >
< option value = "13" > Idaho< / option >
< option value = "14" > Illinois< / option >
< option value = "15" > Indiana< / option >
< option value = "16" > Iowa< / option >
< option value = "17" > Kansas< / option >
< option value = "18" > Kentucky< / option >
< option value = "19" > Louisiana< / option >
< option value = "20" > Maine< / option >
< option value = "21" > Maryland< / option >
< option value = "22" > Massachusetts< / option >
< option value = "23" > Michigan< / option >
< option value = "24" > Minnesota< / option >
< option value = "25" > Mississippi< / option >
< option value = "26" > Missouri< / option >
< option value = "27" > Montana< / option >
< option value = "28" > Nebraska< / option >
< option value = "29" > Nevada< / option >
< option value = "30" > New Hampshire< / option >
< option value = "31" > New Jersey< / option >
< option value = "32" > New Mexico< / option >
< option value = "33" > New York< / option >
< option value = "34" > North Carolina< / option >
< option value = "35" > North Dakota< / option >
< option value = "36" > Ohio< / option >
< option value = "37" > Oklahoma< / option >
< option value = "38" > Oregon< / option >
< option value = "39" > Pennsylvania< / option >
< option value = "40" > Rhode Island< / option >
< option value = "41" > South Carolina< / option >
< option value = "42" > South Dakota< / option >
< option value = "43" > Tennessee< / option >
< option value = "44" > Texas< / option >
< option value = "45" > Utah< / option >
< option value = "46" > Vermont< / option >
< option value = "47" > Virginia< / option >
< option value = "48" > Washington< / option >
< option value = "49" > West Virginia< / option >
< option value = "50" > Wisconsin< / option >
< option value = "51" > Wyoming< / option > < / select >
< / select >
< / div >
< div class = "trendline trendline__options" >
Since Trump took office, his net approval in < span class = "weight__bold" id = "explainer-state" > < / span > has < span class = "weight__bold" id = "explainer-change" > < / span > percentage points.
< / div >
< div class = "trendline__legend" >
< span class = "trendline__legend_approval" > Approval< / span >
< span class = "trendline__legend_disapproval" > Disapproval< / span >
< / div >
< div id = "trendline__highchart" > < / div >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__expand-container" >
< div class = "ranking__social" >
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< a href = "https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&summary=Explore+this+interactive+report+tracking+Trump%27s+standing+across+America%2C+via+Morning+Consult%3A&url=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1&title=Tracking+Trump%3A+The+President%E2%80%99s+Standing+Across+America" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__linkedin mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
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< a href = "https://www.facebook.com/dialog/share?app_id=135331423885334&display=popup&href=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__facebook mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
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< a href = "https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Explore+this+interactive+report+tracking+Trump%27s+standing+across+America%2C+via+%40MorningConsult%3A&url=https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/#section-1" target = "_blank" >
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< i class = "mc-icon mc-icon__twitter mc-icon__sm" > < / i >
< / a >
< / div > < / div >
< / section >
< section class = "section section__bars story" >
< a name = "section-3" > < / a >
< div class = "headline-title" >
Trump's Approval With GOP Primary Voters < / div >
< div class = "headline-copy body-copy__4" >
< p > A breakdown of which demographic groups are more or less likely to approve of Trump. Each of the below groups are sub-demographics < strong > among potential GOP primary voters:< / strong > < / p >
< / div >
< div class = "headline-key" >
< div >
< span class = "key__positive" > < / span >
Approve
< / div >
< div >
< span class = "key__neutral" > < / span >
Don't Know, No Opinion
< / div >
< div >
< span class = "key__negative" > < / span >
Disapprove
< / div >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
All GOP primary voters < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 87%;" >
87%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 12%;" >
12%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
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Ages 18-29 < / span >
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< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 80%;" >
80%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 3%;" >
3%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 18%;" >
18%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
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Ages 30-44 < / span >
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< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 86%;" >
86%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 13%;" >
13%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
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Ages 45-54 < / span >
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< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 88%;" >
88%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 11%;" >
11%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
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Ages 55-64 < / span >
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< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 89%;" >
89%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 11%;" >
11%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
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Ages 65+ < / span >
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< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 89%;" >
89%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 11%;" >
11%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Urban < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 85%;" >
85%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 14%;" >
14%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Suburban < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 86%;" >
86%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 14%;" >
14%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "accordion" id = "accordion-0" >
< div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Rural < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 91%;" >
91%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 9%;" >
9%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Income: Under 50k < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 88%;" >
88%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 11%;" >
11%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Income: 50k-100k < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 87%;" >
87%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 12%;" >
12%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Income: 100k+ < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 85%;" >
85%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 15%;" >
15%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Very conservative < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 96%;" >
96%
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 0%;" >
0%
< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 3%;" >
3%
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< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Conservative < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 93%;" >
93%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 7%;" >
7%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Slightly conservative < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 81%;" >
81%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 18%;" >
18%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Moderate < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 75%;" >
75%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 2%;" >
2%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 24%;" >
24%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
No college < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 89%;" >
89%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 10%;" >
10%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Bachelors degree < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 85%;" >
85%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 15%;" >
15%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Post-grad < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 81%;" >
81%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 18%;" >
18%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Male < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 87%;" >
87%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 12%;" >
12%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Female < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 87%;" >
87%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 12%;" >
12%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Extremely interested in politics < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 92%;" >
92%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 0%;" >
0%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 8%;" >
8%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Very interested in politics < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 89%;" >
89%
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< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 0%;" >
0%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 11%;" >
11%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Somewhat interested in politics < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 86%;" >
86%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 1%;" >
1%
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative ranking__medium " style = "--width: 13%;" >
13%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Not too interested in politics < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
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< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 81%;" >
81%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 2%;" >
2%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 17%;" >
17%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < div class = "ranking ranking-favorability" >
< div class = "ranking__info" >
< div class = "ranking__name" >
< span >
Not at all interested in politics < / span >
< / div >
< div class = "ranking__bar-group" >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__positive " style = "--width: 78%;" >
78%
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< / span >
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< span class = "ranking__neutral ranking__medium ranking__low" style = "--width: 5%;" >
5%
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< / span >
2020-02-02 21:47:49 +01:00
< span class = "ranking__negative " style = "--width: 17%;" >
17%
2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
< / span >
< / div >
< / div >
< / div > < / div >
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See < span > more< / span > demographics
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2019-06-06 00:06:56 +02:00
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Methodology < / div >
< div class = "headline-copy body-copy__4" >
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< p > < em > This page was last updated on January 5, 2020. < / em > < / p >
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< p > < strong > < span class = "" data-color-group = "turquoise" > About Morning Consult Political Intelligence < / span > < / strong > < / p >
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< p > On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all < span class = "" data-color-group = "cornflower-blue" > governors< / span > , < span class = "" data-color-group = "cornflower-blue" > senators< / span > , House members, < span class = "" data-color-group = "cornflower-blue" > the president< / span > and more at the national, state and congressional district level. Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. < span class = "" data-color-group = "cornflower-blue" > Sign up to receive that report in your inbox < a href = "https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/" > here< / a > . < / span > < / p >
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< p > < strong > About the state-level data:< / strong > < / p >
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< p > Morning Consult conducted more than 4 million surveys with registered U.S. voters from January 20, 2017, to December 31, 2019, to determine the approval ratings for President Donald Trump in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for each month. These results use a statistical technique called multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate state-level public opinion from the national survey data for a specific month.< / p >
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< p > In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Trump. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’ t know/no opinion. The surveys also included about 30 demographic questions.< / p >
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< p > Responses to the Trump approval question are modeled via multilevel regression as a function of both individual-level and state-level variables. Our models use age, gender, education and race as individual-level predictor variables. For our state-level variables, we chose variables that may influence state-level vote choice such as the percent change in state gross domestic product (GDP), state unemployment rates, state median household income and state-level outcomes from the 2016 presidential election.< / p >
< p > Morning Consult obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2016 Current Population Survey. We applied post-stratification weights at the state level based on gender, age, educational attainment and race using the American Community Survey (ACS).< / p >
< p > Standard errors for our estimates for each state were calculated by taking 50 bootstrap samples with replacement from our full national dataset for each hypothetical matchup and then assessing this empirical distribution at the state level. The distribution of these predictions at the state level allows us to construct a predictive interval, which gives us a sense of the spread of MRP estimates. The 95 percent predictive intervals range from 1 percentage point in larger states such as California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas, to 4 percentage points in states with sparser populations such as Wyoming.< / p >
< p > The margin of error in each state for the last month is available < a href = "https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/TRUMP_APPROVAL_12.19.csv" > here< / a > .< / p >
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< p > < strong > About the demographic approval data:< / strong > < / p >
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< p > The “ Trump’ s Approval With GOP Primary Voters” section has a different methodology than the above sections. This section is reported based on 57,715 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state. The interviews were collected from Dec. 1-31, 2019, and have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. Each demographic group listed is based on at least 3,558 interviews over that same time frame. The margin of error for each group is either plus or minus 1 or 2 percentage points.< / p >
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< script type = "text/javascript" > var tcb _post _lists = JSON . parse ( '[]' ) ; < / script > < script type = "text/javascript" > /*<![CDATA[*/ if ( ! window . TL _Const ) { var TL _Const = { "security" : "ade65de242" , "ajax_url" : "https:\/\/morningconsult.com\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php" , "forms" : [ ] , "action_conversion" : "tve_leads_ajax_conversion" , "action_impression" : "tve_leads_ajax_impression" , "ajax_load" : 1 , "custom_post_data" : [ ] , "current_screen" : { "screen_type" : 3 , "screen_id" : 104806 } , "ignored_fields" : [ "email" , "_captcha_size" , "_captcha_theme" , "_captcha_type" , "_submit_option" , "_use_captcha" , "g-recaptcha-response" , "__tcb_lg_fc" , "__tcb_lg_msg" , "_state" , "_form_type" , "_error_message_option" , "_back_url" , "_submit_option" , "url" , "_asset_group" , "_asset_option" , "mailchimp_optin" ] } ; } else { ThriveGlobal . $j . extend ( true , TL _Const , { "security" : "ade65de242" , "ajax_url" : "https:\/\/morningconsult.com\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php" , "forms" : [ ] , "action_conversion" : "tve_leads_ajax_conversion" , "action_impression" : "tve_leads_ajax_impression" , "ajax_load" : 1 , "custom_post_data" : [ ] , "current_screen" : { "screen_type" : 3 , "screen_id" : 104806 } , "ignored_fields" : [ "email" , "_captcha_size" , "_captcha_theme" , "_captcha_type" , "_submit_option" , "_use_captcha" , "g-recaptcha-response" , "__tcb_lg_fc" , "__tcb_lg_msg" , "_state" , "_form_type" , "_error_message_option" , "_back_url" , "_submit_option" , "url" , "_asset_group" , "_asset_option" , "mailchimp_optin" ] } ) } /*]]> */ < / script > < script type = 'text/javascript' > j Q u e r y ( d o c u m e n t ) . b i n d ( ' g f o r m _ p o s t _ r e n d e r ' , f u n c t i o n ( e v e n t , f o r m I d , c u r r e n t P a g e ) { i f ( f o r m I d = = 9 9 ) { i f ( t y p e o f P l a c e h o l d e r s ! = ' u n d e f i n e d ' ) {
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Placeholders.enable();
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}} } );jQuery(document).bind('gform_post_conditional_logic', function(event, formId, fields, isInit){} );< / script > < script type = 'text/javascript' > jQuery ( document ) . ready ( function ( ) { jQuery ( document ) . trigger ( 'gform_post_render' , [ 99 , 1 ] ) } ) ; < / script > < script type = "text/javascript" >
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_etmc.push(["setOrgId", "7245018"]);
_etmc.push(["trackPageView"]);
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< script type = "text/javascript" > window . NREUM || ( NREUM = { } ) ; NREUM . info = { "beacon" : "bam.nr-data.net" , "licenseKey" : "86459759b9" , "applicationID" : "85124163" , "transactionName" : "bwdSNktRDxUCAUZZXVZNcQFNWQ4ITBZAUVFTC14FFEQTEw4S" , "queueTime" : 0 , "applicationTime" : 530 , "atts" : "Q0BFQANLHEpBAxAKSUUf" , "errorBeacon" : "bam.nr-data.net" , "agent" : "" } < / script > < / body >
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